Automobile sector set for swift rebound

While October’s trade data showed good exports still depressed by the recent collapse in domestic car production, there is growing anecdotal evidence that the auto sector is on the cusp of a rapid rebound. Toyota said that its global production in October was still 40% below normal, the same shortfall as in September. But production this month is likely to be only 15% below normal and higher than in the same month last year. In December, the company expects to produce a record one million cars globally, up 30% y/y in a bid to make up for lost ground. Nissan has similarly announced that it is ramping up production as supply shortages are dissipating fast. And Honda said today that it expects normal production to resume next month. Between them, these three firms account for more than half of vehicle sales in Japan. The collapse in domestic car production was caused by shortages of components from suppliers in Vietnam and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. But those suppliers’ factories are now getting back to full capacity. As such, most of Japan’s fall in goods exports and the sharp drop in durables consumption last quarter should reverse in Q4. Add in a sharp rebound in services spending due to the easing of domestic restrictions and GDP should rise by around 2.0% q/q this quarter after falling 0.8% q/q in Q3.