Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to stick to its guns We have long argued that Japan’s economy will shrink this year and the recent string of bad news has only made that outcome more likely. But we still don’t expect the Bank of Japan to respond with... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment will rise and wage growth will fall Data released this week showed that there is still considerable spare capacity in the labour market. The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting showed that the Bank has some concerns about cutting... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trump trip, the “tunnel of testing trade-offs” Progress on trade negotiations will be high on the agenda during President Trump’s visit to India next week. But we have low expectations for any major breakthrough given the protectionist turn taken... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Where are the markets wrong on policy rates in DMs? While we agree with investors’ general view that monetary conditions will be accommodative in DMs this year, there’s a group of countries – including the US – where the markets look too dovish. At the... 20th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s more positive outlook won’t have lasted long The account of the ECB’s January meeting suggests that the ECB was becoming a little more positive on the economic outlook. But weak data and the spread of the coronavirus since then will have surely... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economic impact of coronavirus to worsen With the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Korea jumping sharply over the past few days, the Bank of Korea is almost certain to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: prolonged easing cycle unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) today cut its main policy rate by 25bp to 4.75%, but we doubt this will be the start of a prolonged easing cycle given the country’s relatively limited exposure to the slowdown in... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Rate cut still leaves many firms vulnerable Commercial banks cut the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to moves by the People's Bank earlier in the month to lower their funding costs. While more easing is likely in the coming weeks, this... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Assessing the risks to our fed funds forecast In contrast to market expectations, we are still sceptical that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, but we agree with Treasury investors that rates are more likely to fall than rise over the... 19th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: easing cycle near an end, hikes later this year The Turkish central bank (CBRT) shrugged off rising inflation and lowered interest rates by another 50bp today, but the accompanying statement was a little more cautious and we think that the easing... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Reduced stress tests another reason for Bank to hold The proposed change to the mortgage stress tests could put even more upward pressure on house prices over the next 12 months, by increasing the amount that buyers can borrow by more than 3%. With the... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus How worried should we be about regional banks? The profitability of Japan’s regional banks is likely to deteriorate further over the next few years. However, there’s little evidence of asset price bubbles and corporate balance sheets have... 19th February 2020 · 22 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the SNB learning to live with a stronger franc? While we suspect that the SNB has intervened to slow the rise of the franc in recent weeks, it has not prevented it from reaching a multi-year high against the euro. At the margin, an increased... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC cuts rates again, with more easing to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak. But more easing will probably be needed. 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) The sharp drop in output after October’s sales tax hike supports our view that Japan’s economy will shrink this year. But with capacity shortages still tight and underlying inflation holding up, we... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump reshaping the Fed from the outside Judy Shelton’s rocky Senate nomination hearing this week means that President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the Fed from the outside could yet fail at the first hurdle. But the dovish Christopher... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
