China Economics Update The PBOC remains in easing mode The People’s Bank has made another small downward adjustment to the rates it charges banks for short-run liquidity. We expect further cuts in the coming months, which will open the door to lower... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2020 to be better than 2019 Economic growth across the emerging world has slumped this year but, with the important exception of China, recoveries should take hold in 2020. Recent interest rate cuts will keep financial... 17th December 2019 · 9 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Headline wholesale price inflation rose for the first time in eight months in November. While not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, this adds to the impression that the... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to remain on hold for foreseeable future The Bank of Japan seems to have underestimated the drag on domestic demand from October’s sales tax hike. But the global outlook has improved and the government’s fiscal stimulus announcement has... 16th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Government remains reluctant to loosen fiscal policy Australia’s government pledged to increase spending in today’s Budget update. And its pessimistic forecasts for nominal GDP growth suggest that tax revenue may continue to surprise on the upside... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: nearing the end of the easing cycle The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference was characteristically cautious, supporting our view that following today’s 25bp interest rate cut, there will probably be just one... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s fiscal rule, US-China trade truce Adopting a more flexible fiscal target would give Indonesia’s government more room to support growth during periods of weak demand without threatening the country’s fiscal position. Meanwhile, Asian... 13th December 2019 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch Getting close to rate cuts, but the MPC to sit tight for now If the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanted to cut interest rates from 0.75% to 0.50% on Thursday 19th December, the continued weakness of both activity and underlying price pressures means it... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on prolonged hold Weak activity data suggest that GDP may have contracted by 1.0% q/q in the fourth quarter and we still expect the economy to shrink next year rather than expand as most anticipate. However, with the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update More policy easing still likely under Lagarde While Ms Lagarde’s assessment of the outlook in today’s press conference was slightly less gloomy than Mr Draghi’s in October, this does not change our view that the ECB will loosen policy again... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank not taking its foot off the pedal The 200bp interest rate cut (to 12.0%) by the Turkish central bank as well as other recent tweaks to boost lending suggest that policymakers will try to meet President Erdogan’s demand to bring rates... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB halfway through a sub-zero decade Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to leave its policy stance unchanged came as a surprise to nobody. Five years on since the Bank first cut interest rates into negative territory, there is... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Easing cycle probably now at an end The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last night did leave the door open for one more interest rate cut, but on balance we think the easing cycle is at an end. By the same... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP on hold, easing to resume in 2020 The Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate at 4.00% today, but with growth likely to disappoint and inflation set to remain below the mid-point of the BSP’s target, we expect more easing next... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed begins prolonged hold The Fed called time on its easing cycle today by leaving the fed funds target range unchanged at 1.50%-1.75% and striking a more upbeat tone in the policy statement. With economic growth stabilising... 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
