Policy outlook, new forecasts, property tax

Ahead of the publication of our quarterly China Economics Outlook next week, we consider how Evergrande's woes, power cuts and supply shortages have shifted prospects for the economy. Our answer: surprisingly little, but perhaps only because only our expectations for 2022 were already fairly gloomy. There has been growing talk this week that the People’s Bank won’t lower policy rates in the coming months. We’re not convinced.