Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to flatline and, in some cases, fall. What’s more, hard activity data show that supply chain disruptions and raw materials shortages have taken a greater toll on industry. Manufacturing in Poland’s electronics sector has fallen sharply and auto sectors in Czechia and Hungary have been hit hard. We think economies will still post robust rises in GDP in Q3, but the risks lie to the downside and suggest that the regional recovery may return to a steadier pace of growth earlier than we had expected.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.