James Reilly

James is an Assistant Economist on our Markets desk, contributing to the Global Markets, FX Markets and Capital Daily services. He joined the company in 2021, having previously worked within the Multi-Asset division of Schroders. James's coverage of financial markets has ranged from the impact of quantitative tightening on US bonds and equities to the implications of a weaker renminbi for EM currencies. His work is often picked up by leading global media outlets including The Economist, Bloomberg, and Reuters. James has a degree in Economics from the University of Bath.

Asset Allocation Outlook

The trouble before the bubble

Both “safe” and “risky” assets have struggled during Q3 so far, as “risk-free” yields have risen. We expect the fortunes of safe assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely informed by our...

28th September 2023 23 mins read

Capital Daily

We doubt long-dated USTs will keep underperforming

10Y Treasuries have underperformed 2Y Treasuries over recent months, bucking the usual pattern after the final Fed hike (if, as we think, the final hike was in July). But we think the stage is now set...

27th September 2023 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

The relative outlook for US and UK markets

We think that both the Fed and the BoE are finished hiking interest rates and will cut by more than investors are discounting over the next couple of years. We also expect the US and UK economies to...

21st September 2023 4 mins read

Capital Daily

EZ assets may underperform amid “higher for longer”

We think that the ECB is more likely than the Fed to keep rates “higher for longer”, even as the euro-zone heads for a recession. That is one reason why we expect core euro-zone bond yields to fall by...

14th September 2023 4 mins read

Capital Daily

EM bonds may underperform despite early easing cycles

Emerging market (EM) easing cycles are underway in earnest even as the first Fed cut remains a while away. We think this easing will help to drive EM local-currency (LC) government bond yields lower...

7th September 2023 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Are Chinese AI stocks about to take off?

We think China’s AI-related stocks may outperform their US counterparts over the rest of this year. But their longer-term prospects look less upbeat, to us.

31st August 2023 5 mins read

Asset Allocation Chart Pack

Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Aug. 2023)

Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although we’re growing less convinced by the idea that the US economy will tip into...

31st August 2023 1 min read

Capital Daily

Relative outlook for US and EZ high yield spreads

We expect the gap between high yield (HY) credit spreads in the euro-zone and the US to narrow over the rest of this year as spreads in both economies climb.

29th August 2023 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

What to make of the IT sector’s recent stumble

The S&P 500 IT sector has struggled this month amid rising bond yields and waning enthusiasm for AI. While we think the sector may fall further this year in absolute terms, we still project it to...

17th August 2023 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Mixed disinflation paths, but US and UK yields may both fall

Although disinflation in the UK is lagging that in the US, we expect yields in both places to fall this year. And we think that Gilt yields are set to fall by a bit more than Treasury yields through...

16th August 2023 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Chart Pack

Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Jul. 2023)

This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use...

28th July 2023 1 min read

Capital Daily

What to make of the jump in China’s stock market

Chinese equities enjoyed one of their best days in years today, and we think they may continue to outperform equities elsewhere over the rest of this year. But the longer-term prospects for China’s...

25th July 2023 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Chinese equities: near-term gain, long-term pain

China’s stock market has underperformed over recent months and investors once again seem to be discounting a lot of bad news. We think this pessimism is slightly overdone and that Chinese equities...

21st July 2023 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

The relative outlook for EM & US bonds

Although we expect emerging market (EM) policy rates to fall vis-a-vis the US this year, we don’t expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to outperform US Treasuries until global growth picks up over...

5th July 2023 3 mins read

Asset Allocation Outlook

The implications of AI hype for asset returns

Q2 looks set to go down as a decisive victory for “risky” assets over “safe” ones, thanks in large part to euphoria in the stock market over Artificial Intelligence (AI). But we suspect that the story...

27th June 2023 1 min read

Global Markets Update

High Treasury volatility won’t prevent yields from falling

Treasury volatility has fallen over recent weeks but remains high by historical standards, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it remained so over the rest of 2023 even after the Fed has concluded its...

21st June 2023 3 mins read