Latin America Economics Update Brazil: One more cut and done The statement accompanying last night’s Copom meeting gave a clear signal that there will be just one more 50bp interest rate cut in the current cycle (to 4.50%), which should temper expectations in... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to remain on hold next year The Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged today and reiterated its readiness to ease policy if required. However, the background material to its “re-examination of economic and price developments“... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
US Economics Update Fed cuts rates, but draws line under further loosening The Fed cut interest rates for a third time as expected today, to between 1.5% and 1.75%, but changes in the statement suggest it is trying to dissuade the markets from pricing in any further... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Bank becoming more dovish While the Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged today, it cut its growth forecasts and delivered a more dovish policy statement. This supports our view that the Bank will cut its policy rate before... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka goes to the polls Campaigning ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, to be held on 16th November, is well underway. President Maithripala Sirisena has already confirmed he will not stand again and will step down... 30th October 2019 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
RBA Watch Quantitative easing more likely than not Falling unemployment and steady inflation will allow the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% at the meeting on Tuesday, 5th November. However, we expect the... 30th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How will the ECB change under Christine Lagarde? As part of its forthcoming review under Christine Lagarde, the ECB is likely to change its inflation target and make its voting system more transparent. Further ahead, it will have bigger issues to... 29th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown worsens The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the... 29th October 2019 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle shifts up a gear The Russian central bank’s decision to opt for a 50bp rate cut today (to 6.50%) and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement support our view that the easing cycle has further to run. As things... 25th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lack of fiscal stimulus will force the RBA’s hand The new Secretary to the Treasury endorsed the government’s hands-off approach to fiscal policy this week. We suspect the Australian government could increase spending significantly to support the... 25th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to remain on hold next week We now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25bp next week, which could result in a renewed strengthening of the yen and increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to lower... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Bank on hold, for now There is little reason to expect the Bank to alter its policy rate next week but, with the surveys continuing to point to below-potential GDP growth and weaker inflation ahead, we expect the Bank to... 24th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi bows out, but further policy support to come Outgoing President Mario Draghi defended the ECB’s decision last month to introduce a raft of measures and downplayed the Governing Council’s divisions. As euro-zone growth is set to remain weak and... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: further easing, but rates to go up by mid-2020 September’s plunge in inflation alongside the removal of US sanctions gave the Turkish central bank the green light to deliver another larger-than-expected interest rate cut today and the easing cycle... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
