RBA Watch Rates will probably be cut to 0.75% in October The continued rise in the unemployment rate will probably prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to a fresh low of 0.75% at its meeting on Tuesday 1st October. And given that slack... 24th September 2019 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stance, pork reserves, PBOC easing Headline government spending has started to contract but tax cuts mean that the budget deficit is still close to its widest ever and we think the fiscal stance will remain accommodative in the coming... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A closer look at the SNB’s new tiering system The changes to the SNB’s tiering system, announced yesterday, are even more generous to domestic banks than they initially appear, and will help to ‘sugar the pill’ ahead of a probable rate cut. 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government deficit leaves the RBA out on its own The Government just missed out on achieving a surplus in the 2018/19 fiscal year, which means itis unlikely to deliver any additional fiscal stimulus in the near term. That leaves the RBA to do the... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Another small step towards lower rates The newly-revamped Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, came in slightly lower for September. We think that more decisive cuts will materialize before long. 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: Window for a cut closed, rates will be on hold Given policymakers’ decision to keep their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, we now think that South African interest rates will remain unchanged over the coming quarters. Policymakers do not seem... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC unlikely to follow its friends and loosen policy Given the drop in GDP in Q2, the fall in core inflation to an almost 3-year low in August and the ongoing Brexit drama, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from 0.75%... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update TLTROs won’t turn the economy around The surprisingly low uptake of the ECB’s TLTROs today was probably a one-off, and uptake in December is likely to be stronger. But even if it is, we doubt that this will provide much of a boost to the... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan will not join Asia’s rate cutting cycle Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its key policy rate unchanged today at 1.375%, and with growth picking up we doubt it will be in any rush to join the region’s rate cutting cycle. We expect interest... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway bucks the dovish trend for the last time This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its key policy rate by 25bps, to 1.50%, was is in stark contrast to the rate cuts delivered by the Fed and the ECB over the past week. Nonetheless... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Monetary policy has lost its oomph The ability of monetary easing to stimulate credit growth in China has diminished and we think this will lead the People’s Bank to pull down interbank rates further than most anticipate. But even this... 19th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ more eager to ease, but won’t cut rates this year The Bank of Japan’s pledge today “to reexamine economic and price developments” at its next policy meeting has further fuelled speculation of a rate cut in October. Governor Kuroda added in his press... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Further rate cuts likely Today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) clearly signals that its main priority at the moment is supporting the struggling economy. While we think further easing is likely, the central bank is likely... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More generous tiering system paves way for rate cut Given that the Swiss National Bank last changed its policy stance in January 2015, this morning’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at -0.75% came as no surprise to us. But its tweak to make... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Another rate cut likely in October The Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 50bp last night was accompanied by a statement clearly signalling that policymakers intend to ease monetary policy further. As a result... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
