Japan Economics Weekly JGB yields to rise next year despite lower BoJ buying The Bank of Japan is on course to reduce its government bond holdings next year. But the Bank is merely reacting to market conditions rather than setting the tone itself. Our view that risk aversion... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch Divide and exit Mario Draghi’s last meeting as ECB president is unlikely to be the good-natured celebration of his achievements that he might have hoped for. Instead, attention will focus on the growing divisions on... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian rate expectations: is exuberance setting in? The shift in market expectations in Brazil towards much larger interest rate cuts by early 2020 now looks overdone. However, expectations for the Selic rate over a longer time horizon (2-5 years) look... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The RBA will breathe a sigh of relief after the unemployment rate declined in September. But we think it won’t be long before unemployment starts to rise again, forcing the RBA to provide additional... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet heading back above $4trn The Fed’s move to begin purchasing $60bn of Treasury bills per month will eventually push the size of its balance sheet back up to $4trn over the coming year, not far below its $4.2trn peak. However... 16th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea cuts, more easing likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate from 1.50% to 1.25% today and with growth set to remain subdued and price pressures likely to remain very weak, we are expecting more easing next year. 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The weakness in wholesale price inflation in September is likely to persist until the end of the year and, although not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, supports our view... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could banks start charging savers if the BoJ cut rates? Recent suggestions that the Bank of Japan will cut its policy rate have fuelled speculation that Japanese banks might be forced to start passing on negative interest rates to savers. But given that... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: monetary policy set to remain loose The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened policy today and given the current weakness of the economy – GDP figures also published today show growth in year-on-year terms held steady at a ten... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Not confident either economy will improve Consumer and business confidence in Australia have both recently fallen to their weakest levels in years. And we now think GDP growth in New Zealand will slow to 1.5% in 2020. That’s why we think both... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account acknowledges divisions in the Council Given how much has been said (and leaked) about the ECB’s 12th September meeting, there was little scope for fresh revelations in today’s account. But the report is consistent with our view that more... 10th October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But... 10th October 2019 · 49 mins read
