Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks downplay expectations for more dovish policy The more hawkish-than-expected communications from central banks across the region this week suggest that markets should not get carried away with expectations for more accommodative monetary policy... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Dovish votes suggest steeper easing cycle Mexican policymakers cut their policy rate from 8.00% to 7.75% yesterday, and we think that they will continue to loosen policy over the coming quarters. We now expect a 25bp cut in both of the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A primer on Norwegian interest rate expectations Assessing investors’ expectations about the future path of policy interest rates in Norway is not as straightforward as it is in other countries, not least neighbouring Sweden. In this Update we... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling global rates put pressure on central banks The Governors of both the RBNZ and the RBA argued this week that falling interest rates across the globe reflect structural as much as cyclical factors. Given that central banks elsewhere will... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kuroda targets short end, “phenomenal” trade deal The shift in the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases from long towards short maturities has helped to lift very long-term yields from their recent lows. And if US Treasury yields rise further next year... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weak inflation spurs another aggressive rate cut The Central Bank of Egypt shrugged off the market volatility following recent protests across the country and lowered interest rates by another 100bp, to 13.25%, at today’s meeting. So long as the... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Middle East tensions and the impact on EM rates Rising tensions in the Middle East present a significant upside risk to our oil price and inflation forecasts, and could force a handful of EM central banks to abandon easing cycles or even hike... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines easing cycle has further to run Today’s cut to the policy rate by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) from 4.25% to 4.00% is unlikely to be the last in the easing cycle. With growth likely to disappoint and price pressures set... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Powerless central banks driven to tiers The use of tiered interest rates in Europe and Japan has given central banks a little more scope to cut interest rates without doing serious damage to the banking sector. But tiering has arguably also... 26th September 2019 · 14 mins read
RBI Watch MPC likely to revert to “traditional” cut The key question ahead of the MPC meeting that concludes on Friday 4th October is not whether the committee will opt to cut rates again, but rather by how much. We think it will jettison the... 26th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currency ceiling to come back into the SNB’s toolkit Given that the SNB’s policy rate is already at -0.75%, fears of hitting the so-called ‘reversal rate’ are likely to make it unwilling to cut rates much further. With the ECB once again in easing mode... 25th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates on hold, but cut likely before year-end The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today, but with economic growth set to remain weak and concerns about the strength of the baht mounting, we think the central bank... 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM local currency bonds likely to struggle from here The combination of a broad-based easing cycle in emerging markets and strong demand for risky assets has pushed local currency emerging market (EM) sovereign yields down sharply in 2019. However, we... 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates further The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded more comfortable with its position when it left rates on hold today but we still think the Bank will cut rates to 0.75% by early next year. 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What will guide the BoJ’s “re-examination” of policy? The Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will “re-examine economic and price developments” at its meeting at the end of October has been widely interpreted as opening the door to a shift on policy. In... 24th September 2019 · 4 mins read
