Filtered by Topic: Global economic fracturing Use setting Global economic fracturing
Signs of thaw, but risks remain A little over three weeks before the 90-day tariff pause agreed in Geneva is due to end, the US-China relationship is warming. Trump on Wednesday sounded positive about the prospects of an agreement on fentanyl – the …
18th July 2025
Détente is on shaky foundations The understanding reached between the US and China during talks in Geneva and London has now been formalised, with the White House revealing that a written agreement was signed off two days ago. US officials have confirmed …
27th June 2025
Europe is taking Trump’s side on China When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But the opposite is happening: US …
20th June 2025
China’s turn to woo the Gulf The GCC-ASEAN-China summit underway this week contained a lot of platitudes, but it doesn’t change our view that the Gulf’s geopolitical alignment is tilting away from China and towards the US. For China, the summit was an …
29th May 2025
Copom minutes intensify debate over June meeting The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week, at which the Selic rate was hiked by 50bp, have added further fuel to the debate over whether the tightening cycle is already …
16th May 2025
Slow progress on trade deals Monday’s agreement between the US and China to lower tariffs marks a significant de-escalation in tensions between the two countries. However, the deal addresses none of the issues that caused tensions to rise in the first …
The Gulf’s trillion dollar shopping list Headlines have been dominated this week by US President Trump’s dealmaking in the Gulf, striking nearly $1trn of potential deals for investment and trade over the coming years. There’s a big question mark about …
15th May 2025
Mexico: growth worries points to another 50bp cut Hard and soft activity data out of Mexico over the past few weeks paint a picture of a struggling economy. Admittedly, the IGAE index rebounded by 1.0% m/m in February. But that came after contractions in …
25th April 2025
Both sides are taking an axe to economic ties We’ve argued for years that geopolitical forces are fracturing the global economy into blocs, with the key fault line being the US-China rivalry. Until recently, this had been a gradual shift that was …
17th April 2025
President Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) yesterday to recommit to fiscal discipline and investment-led growth. The rebuke of the US in his speech was noticeable, suggesting Trump’s recent actions could act to push South Africa …
7th February 2025
Biden's final export control crackdown In the final days of his administration, Biden has (yet again) ramped up US export controls in a bid to slow China’s development of advanced AI. The new Interim Final Rule on Artificial Intelligence Diffusion …
17th January 2025
Syria’s rebel advance tests MENA’s geopolitics Over the past week, Syrian rebel forces have retaken significant amounts of territory from President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with little resistance so far. It’s unclear whether the rebels will make further …
5th December 2024
Egypt’s policy agenda shifts to long term reforms With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation drive. …
21st November 2024
Exporters could do even better in the near-term We published our initial thoughts on the impact of a second Trump presidency on China’s economy here . Counter-intuitively, perhaps, we concluded that there would be initial upside for exporters, as US firms …
8th November 2024
The US election next week is likely to have major ramifications for geopolitical ties, trade, and financial markets in the MENA region. (All our analysis on the impact of the US election on EMs can be found on our dedicated webpage here .) Attention in …
31st October 2024
The past week has been one of the more eventful for India in recent memory on the geopolitical front. The most eye-catching development was an agreement with China on patrolling arrangements along their disputed border in the Himalayas. News of the …
25th October 2024
Al-Sisi demands review with IMF Comments from Egypt’s President al-Sisi over the past week pushing back against the pace of reforms under the current IMF deal has alarmed investors a little, but the bigger picture is that Egypt’s economy is in a far …
24th October 2024
BRICS+ to meet with a notable absentee Next week’s BRICS+ summit in Russia is likely to focus on the group’s further expansion after Egypt and the UAE (along with several other countries) joined last year. Notably, however, Saudi Arabia – which was also …
17th October 2024
We will discuss our latest EM Financial Risk Monitor in a Drop-In next Thursday. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing. By hook or by crook The declaration that incumbent Nicolás Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election was met with …
2nd August 2024
Trump sets out his stall for warmer Saudi ties Donald Trump has outlined his intentions to improve relations with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election. But potential tensions over the handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict mean that, for now, Saudi officials …
18th July 2024
Still a bright future in Europe China protested the European Commission’s (EC) imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made EVs this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a good outcome. The European tariffs, …
14th June 2024
Trade barriers doing little to slow influx of goods Trade data published today showed that Chinese exports remained on a tear in May, rising 14.5% y/y in volume terms. This will add to concerns in Western countries about the influx of Chinese goods, which …
7th June 2024
US pulling Saudi back from China’s orbit US officials this week suggested that a mooted grand deal with Saudi Arabia could be signed off in the coming weeks. This would redraw how the Kingdom aligns itself in a fracturing global economy. Jake Sullivan, …
23rd May 2024
Weak growth a concern for the central bank Bank Indonesia is the only central bank in the region with a mandate to ensure currency stability. While we had not been expecting the central bank to raise interest rates at its April meeting , the move didn’t …
17th May 2024
Is Saudi Arabia moving away from China’s orbit? Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a new security pact would, if confirmed, cause us to re-evaluate our view of the Kingdom’s alignment in a fracturing global economy. Prior to the start of …
2nd May 2024
Egypt needs enhanced IMF deal urgently Egypt’s foreign currency woes remained in the spotlight this week, highlighting the importance of getting an enhanced IMF deal over the line in order to avoid a disorderly balance of payments crisis. This week …
18th January 2024
Vietnam in the “lean US camp” Vietnam this week played host to President Xi Jinping of China and in doing so became the only country in the world this year to have received state visits from the leaders of both the US and China. During Xi’s visit, the …
15th December 2023
Tensions within OPEC+ rise as threat of cut looms OPEC+ was meant to be in the spotlight this weekend but, in a surprise move, the meeting has been delayed until Thursday. The slide in oil prices and the Israel-Hamas conflict suggest that output quotas …
23rd November 2023
Over half of cross-border settlement now in RMB Earlier this week, the People’s Bank published its annual report on renminbi internationalisation. The message from the 84-page document is that global use of China’s currency has been gaining momentum …
3rd November 2023
Infrastructure remains a major weakness Indonesia’s first high-speed train line is due to become operational this Sunday, when a WHOOSH bullet train departs the Indonesian capital of Jakarta for the provincial capital of Bandung, 88 miles away. Journey …
29th September 2023
Huawei's chip breakthrough The launch of Huawei’s new phone, the Mate 60 Pro, has sparked a debate over the effectiveness of US export controls that were tightened last year, restricting the sale to China of machinery needed to produce sub-18nm chips. The …
8th September 2023
Time for a new acronym Earlier today it was confirmed that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran, Argentina, and Ethiopia were all being invited to join the BRICS bloc and, while this is unlikely to have major economic effects in the near term, the possible …
24th August 2023
Stronger RMB by year-end The PBOC’s Q2 Monetary Policy Report, published last Friday, included new language pledging to “prevent large fluctuations in the exchange rate”. Then, with the renminbi approaching 7.3/$ at the start of this week, the PBOC pushed …
7th July 2023
Indian manufacturing to benefit by leaning to US The sweeping agreements on trade and defence announced during Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US this week underline that India’s government and firms increasingly see their interests as favouring …
23rd June 2023
Slow progress tackling construction backlog New home sales have ticked up since the end of last year, helped by a post-zero-COVID recovery in consumer confidence and large reductions in mortgage rates and down-payment requirements. But the improvement has …
26th May 2023
Fracturing back in the spotlight The worsening relationship between China and the US is set to be one of the key themes of the G7 meeting, now underway in Japan. This dedicated page on our website is the best place to go for our ongoing work on …
19th May 2023
Difficult balancing act for the Philippines The US and the Philippines this week began their largest-ever joint military exercises, with 17,000 troops taking part. The exercises follow an agreement in February that provided the US with four more …
14th April 2023
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi rather than US dollars. The Brazilian branch of ICBC will …
31st March 2023
Official efforts to curb China’s reliance on imported semiconductors have been going on for years. In 2015, the government set a goal of China being 70% self-sufficient by 2025. But progress toward that target has been much slower than hoped. Only a third …
24th March 2023
Labour reforms could encourage more MNCs The overarching message from our latest India Economic Outlook published this week is that while prospects for the economy look a little uninspiring over the near term, there are reasons to be optimistic further …
Common currency talk highlights dollar concerns The week kicked off with the surprise news that Argentina and Brazil are looking at establishing a common currency to facilitate trade between the two countries. Further reports have clarified that, rather …
27th January 2023
The Party Congress has slowed the leadership’s response to the semiconductor export controls introduced by the Biden administration two weeks ago. But the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has, according to Bloomberg, been conducting …
21st October 2022
Apple production shift boosts local manufacturing Regular readers of our India research will be (perhaps all-too-) familiar with our view that the key to India sustaining rapid economic growth over coming decades is the development of its manufacturing …
14th October 2022
US-Saudi relationship dials back Developments since last week’s OPEC+ decision provide further evidence that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has soured. (See our immediate take on it here .) Chair of the US Senate Foreign Relations …
13th October 2022
Our annual Spotlight series this year looks at the implications of the “fracturing” of the global economy that we believe is being caused by the re-emergence of geopolitics as a driver of policy. The key divide is between China and the West. Events at the …
7th October 2022
Taiwan has dominated the headlines this week, with Nancy Pelosi’s visit triggering Chinese military drills and restrictions on cross-strait trade. These moves appear largely symbolic. China’s bans on exports of natural sand and imports of some Taiwanese …
5th August 2022
Tech crackdown goes to New York… Decoupling has entered a new phase over the past year. Where China previously was trying to temper US efforts to decouple, in key areas it now appears to want the same. The Five-Year Plan’s push for self-sufficiency in …
9th July 2021
Consumer boycotts of foreign brands in China are nothing new but they have become more frequent . A dataset produced last year by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) identified 57 acts of what it calls “coercive diplomacy” in 2019, more than …
1st April 2021
The “nuclear option”? The threat of US sanctions on Chinese banks is drawing renewed attention to their reliance on SWIFT, the financial messaging system used to process most cross-border transactions. SWIFT is a co-operative of global banks and is …
30th July 2020
Hurdles remain to Wall Street’s China dream The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China that will widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). Foreign ownership caps on insurance, securities, futures and …
17th January 2020
