The PBOC has succeeded for the time being in stemming the slide in the renminbi. It wouldn’t take much for pressure to return, but we think the balance of probabilities points to a stronger currency by the end of the year, even if China’s economy doesn’t stage a strong revival. Meanwhile, the export curbs that China’s commerce ministry has announced for critical minerals would cause major disruption if strictly imposed. But they would also spur the emergence of new, rival suppliers which wouldn’t be in China’s long-run interests.
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