The US election and implications for MENA

Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel-Gaza war and the spillovers to Lebanon and Iran. The region is largely sheltered from the direct effects of a shift towards greater trade protectionism under Trump. But the region’s dollar pegs mean currencies would strengthen in trade-weighted terms, hindering diversification efforts, and interest rates would rise, weighing on non-oil GDP growth.

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