What if Chinese banks are cut off from SWIFT?

Financial decoupling between the US and China could be far more disruptive to both China and the global economy than anything the Trump administration has attempted so far. But much of what is currently being threatened would have more manageable. Severing Chinese access to SWIFT, which some have raised as a next step, may just encourage wider adoption of CIPS, the Chinese alternative. Sanctions targeting individual Chinese banks or transaction types would be more painful but still a headwind for China’s economy rather than a disaster.