Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
Trump softening his expectations on the war? Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20 th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and recent comments from officials suggesting …
10th January 2025
Mozambique and the return of Mondlane Post-election unrest in Mozambique threatens to re-escalate with Daniel Chapo set to be inaugurated as the country’s next president on Wednesday and opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane returned to the country this …
Is Putin moving closer to a compromise? A lot of headlines from President Putin’s annual year-end press conference have focused on suggestions that he’s willing to make compromises to end the war in Ukraine. But it also remains clear that the two sides …
20th December 2024
Anatomy of a (self-inflicted) crisis Brazil this week was on the precipice of a crisis – if not in one already. The real continued to tumble, hitting a record low of 6.3/$ on Wednesday – down around 10% against the dollar since late October. 10-year local …
Nigeria: more rate hikes not a done deal Nigeria’s headline inflation rate crept up further in November, but we’re not convinced that this will prompt the central bank to deliver more rate hikes. Figures released on Monday showed that Nigeria’s headline …
Winner and losers from Assad’s downfall The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a monumental development after a period of 54 years in which his family had ruled the country. While there is still a high level of uncertainty over the …
13th December 2024
South Africa October activity data point to recovery While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4. The retail sector recorded a 1.6% m/m gain in October, more …
B ut a dramatic shift in policy approach still unlikely The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), an annual gathering at which China’s leadership discusses targets and priorities for the following year, concluded yesterday. We discussed the key …
Another twist in Romania’s election rollercoaster Romania’s constitutional court unexpectedly announced today that it will annul the first round of the presidential election , which took place on 24 th November and saw independent far-right candidate, C …
6th December 2024
South Africa GDP miss to be followed by rebound The 0.3% q/q fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q3 was disappointing, but it was largely driven by a slump in agriculture that should unwind. Along with low inflation and continued monetary easing, we expect the …
CBN makes case inflation close to peaking Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Yemi Cardoso set out the case at this week’s MPC meeting for inflation to slow down, suggesting that officials are eyeing the end of the tightening cycle. The CBN’s …
29th November 2024
Mexico in Trump’s crosshairs President-elect Donald Trump fired the opening salvo in the next round of the trade war this week, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico (as well as from Canada, plus a separate tariff on China) on day …
The ruble’s rollercoaster ride Donald Trump’s election victory has made some form of an end to the war in Ukraine more likely. (For more, see here .) His appointment this week of Keith Kellogg as his Russia-Ukraine envoy also points in this direction. Mr. …
Trump links some tariffs to the drug trade Earlier this week, President Trump threatened to impose an “additional” 10% tariff on imports from China, along with tariffs on Mexico and Canada. We gave our initial thoughts here , noting that because the …
SARB: lower CPI target poses upside risk to rates The SARB seemed optimistic when cutting its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75%, this week and, while we expect further easing, the growing likelihood that the inflation target will be lowered in the coming months …
22nd November 2024
Russia’s war in Ukraine escalates Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with the US shifting its strategy to give Ukraine the go-ahead to use Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an …
Rand hit by Trump trade, falling commodity prices The recent weakness of the South African rand is a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but sharp falls in some of South Africa key commodity exports also appear to have played a role. We expect the currency to …
15th November 2024
US President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations announced over the past week give us a guide to how his policies will affect Latin America. The fact many of his choices, including Kristi Noem (Homeland Security secretary) and Thomas Homan (“border …
Yet another week of disappointing activity data … The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to concerns about the health of the region’s economies. Poland’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q , while GDP …
Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has, so far, been met with a muted response in African financial markets. The South African rand, for example, has held broadly steady while regional dollar bond yields have recorded modest moves. That said, a …
8th November 2024
End to the war in Ukraine in sight? One of the most important channels through which Donald Trump’s victory in the US election could affect Emerging Europe – and the global geopolitical landscape – is if he seeks to end the war in Ukraine, as he pledged …
CEE struggling, Hungary in a league of its own The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region. The Czech economy grew by just 0.3% q/q – in line with our forecast, but some way below the central …
1st November 2024
South Africa reembraces fiscal discipline The biggest event this week was South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on Wednesday, which was pitched as pro-growth, but the numbers underline that the Treasury sees little room to loosen the …
It’s still unclear if consumption will be prioritised Over the weekend, the Vice Finance Minister confirmed that the NPC Standing Committee is set to approve a fiscal package at its upcoming meeting , set to last from Monday to Friday of next week. At a …
Has Poland’s consumer recovery gone into reverse? The downside surprise in Polish retail sales data this week was the biggest at any point in the past decade. (See Chart 1.) In contrast to expectations for a slight slowdown in growth to +2.0% y/y in …
25th October 2024
Dead Nigeria Shell oil deal sign of local firm worries This week Nigeria rejected Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business, the latest multinational attempt to divest from Nigeria. Lower foreign investment makes us less hopeful on Nigeria’s oil production …
Fiscal package may be revealed in two weeks At its 12 th October press conference, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) offered some reassurances that fiscal spending would pick up in the final months of this year and stay supportive into 2025. But it didn’t …
SARB lays out requirements for lower rates The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that recommitting to fiscal consolidation and pushing through structural reforms are key to creating extra space for …
18th October 2024
External developments: the good, the bad & the ugly The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating …
BRICS+ to meet with a notable absentee Next week’s BRICS+ summit in Russia is likely to focus on the group’s further expansion after Egypt and the UAE (along with several other countries) joined last year. Notably, however, Saudi Arabia – which was also …
17th October 2024
Kenya’s second consecutive 75bp cut Kenya’s lowered its policy rate by 75bp this week and continued disinflation alongside an improved external environment mean that Kenya will deliver further monetary loosening over the coming months. Similar trends are …
11th October 2024
Consumer support and a larger deficit Tomorrow’s press conference will provide a platform for the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to reveal its fiscal plans. The stakes are high - most observers agree that recent stimulus announcements won’t amount to much …
Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing hostilities across the Middle East. The latest ratcheting up …
4th October 2024
CNY nears strong end of its trading band We regret to inform our readers that the chart and analysis in this section contained errors. We have added a corrected chart below. The original chart and analysis have also been retained for reference but should …
CBN rate hikes about inflation and credibility The Central Bank of Nigeria’s surprise hike this week highlighted the greater progress that the MPC wants to see on the inflation front and also importantly its steadfast ambition to restore its trust and …
27th September 2024
Tailwind from Fed’s easing cycle will be small The US easing cycle that got underway with a 50bp cut this week will provide a boost to economic activity in Hong Kong, where a fixed exchange rate means interest rates track those in the US. We expect the …
20th September 2024
PIF investment in Egypt: the first of many? Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has pledged to invest $5bn into Egypt in a further sign that March’s policy shift is attracting international attention. At the same time, this will help to put …
19th September 2024
A temporary boost to employment growth After years of delay, China’s legislature today passed a bill that raises the statutory retirement age for the first time since 1978. In January, it will increase from 60 to 63 for men, 55 to 58 for white-collar …
13th September 2024
The ECB’s easing cycle continued this week and the first Fed rate cut is just around the corner, but we still think that central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are now at the beginning of a slower phase of their easing cycles and will loosen …
What will the US election mean for the Asia growth outlook? Will China’s economy overtake the US? Will India fulfil its growth potential? We’re tackling these issues and more in our Asia roundtable in London on Tuesday, 24th September. If you’d like to …
Canada joins tariff hiking club On Monday, Canada announced a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel. The tariffs themselves won’t have much of a macro impact – the affected goods make up less than 0.1% …
30th August 2024
Chinese lending to Africa increases Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. With fiscal policy tight, African economies will welcome more financing. But the region would also benefit from efforts …
Further signs of fiscal complacency in Poland The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to our …
Falling fertility bodes poorly for long-run outlook Data released this week showed that Korea's fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime) dropped further to 0.72 last year (see Chart 1), the lowest of …
Libya’s oil shutdown could influence OPEC+ The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the loss of …
29th August 2024
Nigeria businesses downbeat, but economy turning A CBN business survey published this week suggested that businesses are still downbeat on the economy, but we think slowing inflation and a more stable naira may soon bring some near-term cheer. The …
23rd August 2024
Ukraine’s surprise incursion Ukraine’s incursion into Russia continued this week. Ukraine found a weak spot in Russian defences two weeks ago and mobilised resources to exploit it. The scale of the incursion is significant, with some suggesting that …
RBI Governor pushes back against change to target A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. In the Government’s Annual Economic Survey …
Poland the region’s star in Q2 Perhaps the standout feature of the data released in the region this week was the strength of Polish GDP in Q2. Output expanded by a bumper 1.5% q/q, its fastest pace since Q1 2022. (See our initial take here .) The data …
16th August 2024
Corporate borrowing still growing at a decent clip China’s July credit data came in weaker than expected on Wednesday. In particular, despite the PBOC cutting the loan prime rate last month, net new bank loans to the real economy turned negative for the …
