Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates

The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the currency to remain on the backfoot over the next twelve months or so. Elsewhere, the Bank of Zambia’s interest rate hike this week is unlikely to be enough to stop the kwacha's slide or prevent rising inflation. Further monetary tightening is on the cards.