RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past couple of days, it’s clear that the economy is under increasing strain. Meanwhile, the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah could ease fiscal and inflation concerns in Israel, but the risks to the economy from the conflict in the region have not gone away. Finally, we think the sell-off in Romania’s bond market could intensify if the big wave of support for the far-right in Romania’s presidential election is matched by similar support in parliamentary elections this Sunday.