US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Mark Rubio as secretary of state suggests that – after years of neglect – Latin America will play a more prominent role in US foreign policy in the next four years. Rubio is known for taking a tough line on left-wing authoritarian regimes in the region, which may mean a return to a “maximum pressure” approach, in particular towards Venezuela, but possibly also Cuba and Nicaragua. He is also likely to push governments in the region to clamp down on Chinese investment and influence in their countries. Mexico is likely to bow to that pressure, whereas others’ willingness to comply with US demands will be influenced by the depth of their geopolitical ties with Beijing and their trade balances vis-à-vis China.
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