Overview – After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus. And Colombia and Argentina will miss out on …
16th October 2019
Overview – Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and Eastern Europe are likely to slow further as …
In keeping with our bearish view on the euro-zone, our forecasts for GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordic economies over the coming years are generally well below consensus. Switzerland is most exposed to the industrial woes in Germany, and we expect …
Overview – Economic growth has slowed to a crawl and is likely to remain anaemic until well into next year, even in the absence of a fresh external shock. Germany is probably in a recession already and we think it will not recover for a long while yet; …
15th October 2019
Overview – The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and we expect the unemployment rate to climb …
Overview – Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31 st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our scenarios based on different Brexit outcomes …
14th October 2019
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – Several large emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia and India, should emerge from recent weak patches over the coming quarters. But at an aggregate level, that will be offset by slowdowns elsewhere, most notably in …
11th October 2019
China Overview – China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to intensify further, it is hard to see how a …
10th October 2019
Overview – Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction coming …
Overview - We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less optimistic about the outlook for capital …
9th October 2019
Overview – India’s economy slowed sharply in the first half of the year but, with policy support being stepped up, growth should gradually recover. And despite the recent soft patch for the economy, we remain optimistic about India’s longer-term …
8th October 2019
Overview – Mortgage interest rates recently dropped to three-year lows, but mortgage applications for home purchase are more-or-less unchanged from where they were at the start of the year. A slowing economy, tighter mortgage lending standards and lack of …
4th October 2019
Overview – After a strong second quarter, a sharp deceleration in export growth is set to pull GDP growth down from 1.5% this year to an even further below-potential 1.3% in 2020. We expect signs of slower growth to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut …
3rd October 2019
Overview – After the deepest downturn since the Cultural Revolution in Q1, China’s economy will return to growth this quarter. But with labour market strains holding back domestic demand and external headwinds intensifying, output is still set to contract …
30th September 2019
Overview – We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.3% this year to 1.4% in 2020, before a more favourable post-election policy mix generates a rebound to 2.0% in 2021. Under those circumstances, we anticipate one final 25bp interest rate cut from the Fed in …
26th September 2019
Executive Summary – Our new forecasts reflect Scandinavian prime office yields falling in 2020 and into 2021, on the back of our lower bond yield profile. But retail property in the region faces slight yield rises as risk premia rise. In emerging Europe, …
20th September 2019
This week’s FOMC meeting reinforces our view that many “safe” assets – such as some government bonds and precious metals – will return less than cash in US dollar terms later this year, as central banks in the US and elsewhere fail to ease by more than …
19th September 2019
Overview – With the euro-zone slowdown underway, we think that the ECB will loosen monetary policy before the year is out, meaning bond yields are set to remain negative for some time. As a result, yield compression in the office and industrial sectors …
11th September 2019
Overview – Regardless of the Brexit outcome, we expect all-property returns to be squeezed as a result of weakness in the retail sector. However, as Brexit could dramatically alter the near-term outlook for the economy and UK commercial property, we are …
15th August 2019
The global shift away from risky assets and towards safer ones that seems to be underway will either be exacerbated by a no deal Brexit on 31 st October or cushioned by a deal or a delay. Although a lot of bad news has already been priced into UK gilt …
12th August 2019
The strong performance of both equities and government bonds this year reflects a view that monetary easing will put the global economy back on track very soon – an outlook that seems too benign to us. Central banks around the world are likely to loosen …
1st August 2019
Overview – Recent rallies in metals prices, particularly in precious metals and iron ore, are likely to falter sooner rather than later. Indeed, we expect almost all metals prices to drop in the remainder of this year as global growth slows and investor …
29th July 2019
Overview – We continue to expect that sluggish growth in global oil consumption will be a factor weighing on oil prices in 2019. Nonetheless, OPEC+ output cuts and the sanctions-related drop in exports from Venezuela and Iran will put a floor under …
26th July 2019
Overview – Regardless of the Brexit outcome, we don’t expect a rebound in either house prices or transactions in 2019. Rather, there is hope of a modest improvement in housing market activity in both 2020 and 2021, assuming a no-deal Brexit is avoided in …
22nd July 2019
China Overview – China’s economy has stabilised in recent months thanks to surprisingly resilient property construction. But real estate developers will probably scale back the pace of new projects before long. And with headwinds from US tariffs and …
Overview – Subdued economic growth will weigh on the prices of most industrial and energy commodities for the remainder of 2019. What’s more, our view that there will be a further escalation in the US-China trade war could have particularly negative …
19th July 2019
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We see world GDP growth slowing further as the US succumbs to the weakness which is already evident elsewhere. The downturn in global manufacturing is spreading to the services sector and labour markets are also …
Markets Overview – We think that a combination of policy loosening by major central banks, an increase in investor risk aversion, and mounting trade tensions will lead to bond yields in Switzerland and the Nordics staying lower for longer and equities …
17th July 2019
Overview – Economic growth is likely to remain anaemic this year and to slow further in 2020 even if downside risks, such as a US auto tariff or no-deal Brexit, do not materialise. The downturn in the German manufacturing sector is spreading to other …
16th July 2019
Overview – As Brexit could dramatically alter the near-term outlook for the economy, we are continuing to publish three sets of forecasts based on different Brexit outcomes (deal, no deal and more delays). But there are three common themes to this …
Overview – The regional slowdown at the start of this year has further to run. This will continue to be led by the Gulf countries, where the drag from oil output cuts will intensify and low oil prices will prompt fresh fiscal austerity. Elsewhere, balance …
15th July 2019
Overview – After a terrible start to the year, we expect economic growth in Latin America to pick up over the next 12-18 months. However, recoveries in most cases will be weak. Indeed, our GDP forecasts for many countries, including the region’s two …
12th July 2019
Overview – Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa weakened in early 2019, but activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and into 2020 as policy across the region loosens. Even so, our forecasts are below consensus for most African economies. We …
11th July 2019
Overview – We expect economic growth across Emerging Asia to remain weak this year, with many countries set to grow at their slowest pace in a decade. China’s economy has stabilised in recent months thanks in large part to a resilient property sector. But …
Overview – The economy is set to expand by a muted 1.3% in 2019 and only 1.0% in 2020. Faced with weak external demand, further declines in residential investment and subdued consumption growth, we expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates before …
10th July 2019
Overview - Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that homebuilding will become more attractive again. …
Overview – Regional GDP growth probably hit a trough in the first half of the year, but the recovery from here on will be sluggish. Turkey is only likely to pull out of its recent recession slowly, and growth in Russia will be held back by oil output …
9th July 2019
Overview – Policy support has been stepped up in recent months and, with further easing set to follow, growth should gradually recover from the slowdown in Q1. In fact, the risk now is that policy loosening goes too far, raising the prospect of higher …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – EM GDP growth has slowed sharply and, while it should bottom out soon, growth will remain very weak. Indeed, our forecasts lie below the consensus across much of the emerging world. China – China’s economy has stabilised …
8th July 2019
Overview – Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep higher next year, keeping a lid on price …
Overview – The sharp fall in mortgage interest rates seen since the start of the year has not spurred much of a recovery in housing market activity. Home sales and housing starts have more-or-less held their ground, and house price growth has been on a …
28th June 2019
Overview – We expect GDP growth to slow sharply in the second half of this year, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp. GDP growth will slow from 2.3% this year to 1.2% in 2020, before looser financial conditions prompt a recovery …
27th June 2019
We think that world GDP growth will average around 3.0% over the next twenty years, compared to around 3.5% over the past two decades. Productivity growth is likely to rebound in advanced economies, led by the US, but this will be offset by a steady …
6th December 2018
9th September 2018
