Skip to main content

Trade war and election add to uncertainty

We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.3% this year to 1.4% in 2020, before a more favourable post-election policy mix generates a rebound to 2.0% in 2021. Under those circumstances, we anticipate one final 25bp interest rate cut from the Fed in December. We expect the economy to avoid a recession, but the trade war and next year’s presidential election mean the outlook is more uncertain than usual.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access