Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere

Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction coming to an end and headwinds from higher food inflation and the global trade war set to intensify, growth is likely to slow in 2020. The outlook is better in the rest of the region. Although India’s economy slowed sharply in the first half of the year, growth should accelerate over the coming year helped by recent interest rate cuts and fiscal loosening. Growth should also start to pick up in the rest of the region, with policy loosening and a recovery in the electronics sector likely to offset the drag from weak global demand.