Skip to main content

Outlook softer whatever happens with Brexit

Regardless of what happens with Brexit between now and 31st October, the recent weakening in both the global and domestic data has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecasts in all three of our scenarios based on different Brexit outcomes (a deal, a no deal and repeated delays). Only in the deal scenario are interest rates raised. Only in a no deal scenario is there a recession. But we think that interest rates would be cut in two scenarios – if there is a no deal and if there are another one or two delays to Brexit. Meanwhile, if there were a general election before Brexit, the economy might have to cope with either a no deal Brexit or the potentially business-unfriendly policies of a Labour government.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access