Skip to main content

EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls

We expect most of the 2020s to be characterised by slow growth and very low inflation as persistently weak productivity growth leaves the developed world looking distinctly Japanese. But technological developments should ultimately bear fruit and we forecast that a pick-up in output per worker from late in the decade will help offset the decline in working age populations, keeping global growth close to 3%. Growth in emerging economies will continue to outpace that in the developed world, but not to the extent seen in the recent past. The process of reform and market liberalisation has stalled in many large EMs and some of the previous gains from opening up to international trade could be lost as the current wave of globalisation ends.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services


Get access