Overview – The vaccine rollout is likely to make enough progress for most pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted in the spring. If so, we think euro-zone GDP will regain its pre-pandemic level by the middle of next year, with Germany getting there …
21st January 2021
Overview – China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and exports fade. Consumer Spending – Household …
Overview – A rapid roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines, combined with rising oil production and higher oil prices, will support a quick recovery this year in the Gulf economies. But other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are likely to take longer to …
20th January 2021
Overview – With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid-year – we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this …
19th January 2021
Overview – Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It implies that the government doesn’t need to …
Overview - The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate that New Zealand’s economy has already …
18th January 2021
Overview – Our forecasts for GDP growth across Emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board, but fresh outbreaks in a number of countries mean the risks to our forecasts are to the downside. Korea , Malaysia, Hong …
Overview – Prolonged containment measures mean that activity in Emerging Europe will remain depressed for longer than we had previously expected. But the region is well-placed to access and distribute vaccines, which should allow activity to recover more …
14th January 2021
Overview – Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be lifted. Our forecasts for growth of 4.6% …
Overview – The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the recovery in 2021 and 2022. But even widespread …
11th January 2021
Overview – Japan is battling a third virus wave and is a laggard in the global vaccine rollout race. Even so, we expect economic activity to return to pre-virus levels in the second half of this year as vaccines become widely available. Our forecast that …
Although the incoming economic data are likely to remain poor until around mid-2021, we forecast that “risky” assets will continue to outperform “safe” ones comfortably over the next couple of years as a whole. We also anticipate that this will be …
7th January 2021
Overview – The housing market boomed in the latter half of 2020, as record low mortgage rates, displacement due to COVID-19 and increased savings boosted home demand. But those drivers will ease in 2021 and, alongside worsening affordability and record …
23rd December 2020
The changes to our forecasts this quarter reflect two partially offsetting factors – downgrades to occupier demand, and upgrades to the yield outlook. We expect NYC and San Francisco to be the worst affected markets in the next three years, seeing average …
18th December 2020
Overview – While vaccine developments have improved the economic outlook for the latter half of next year, the near-term weakness in economic activity means that property values will remain under pressure over the coming quarters. But even once occupier …
Overview – The positive news on the vaccine has improved the economic outlook and should allow output in the Swiss and Scandinavian economies to recover to their pre-virus levels in late 2021. This will support the rental recovery. However, structural …
17th December 2020
Overview – While the news of vaccines provides a fillip to our economic outlook, it does not have a major bearing on our occupier market forecasts. After all, we expect that structural change, rather than cyclical growth, will be the major driver of …
11th December 2020
Overview – Although the near-term economic outlook remains weak, vaccine developments pave the way for a rebound in mid-2021. However, we think that the rental recovery in property markets will be more gradual. This reflects that structural headwinds …
10th December 2020
After having been hit particularly hard during the COVID-19 crisis, UK assets are well placed to perform much better now that COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook. Indeed, the combination of a decent economic recovery and continued …
24th November 2020
Overview – The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property yields will edge higher and that all-property …
20th November 2020
We continue to think that risky assets will gain more ground and that the US dollar will weaken against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy. In our view, the outcome of the recent US elections and the news …
13th November 2020
Overview – Energy demand and prices have continued to recover from their virus-induced lows, but they remain depressed. However, we expect the revival in energy demand to pick up pace in 2021 as developed economies phase out virus-containment measures and …
28th October 2020
Overview – The post-lockdown recovery in house price growth and housing market activity has exceeded expectations. But the economy will act as a drag on the housing market in the coming months, while pent-up demand will soon be expended and the stamp duty …
27th October 2020
Overview – Industrial metals prices have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the stimulus-fuelled recovery in China’s economy. But given how far prices have risen already, and that we think demand outside of China will remain lacklustre, an …
26th October 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin America lagging. …
23rd October 2020
Overview – Commodity prices will continue to benefit from the stimulus-fuelled recovery in China’s economy over the next year. At the same time, a gradual revival in growth in advanced economies should give a lift to the price of oil, which has …
22nd October 2020
Overview – Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been delayed, low oil prices will weigh on growth …
Overview – Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more strongly from the crisis than many other …
Global Overview – The world economy has clawed back about 60% of the output lost in the first half of the year, but recoveries in most parts of the world have already slowed. Prospects now vary according to success in controlling the virus and the policy …
Overview – The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so, with the number of new cases still very …
21st October 2020
Overview – The economies of the Middle East and North Africa have continued to recover in recent months but, while the Gulf countries seem to have the virus under control, low oil prices mean that fiscal consolidation will continue to hold back growth. In …
Having outperformed in H1, the Nordic economies are set for some of the smallest falls in output in Europe this year. Of course, the virus is the key uncertainty for the outlook, but it is encouraging that Denmark’s second wave already looks to have …
20th October 2020
Overview – The second wave of coronavirus has caused the recovery to stall and we forecast euro-zone GDP to stagnate for the next six months, with an outright recession a significant downside risk. We think Spain’s economy will probably contract in Q4, …
19th October 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and some movement out of cities have helped drive home sales to 13-year highs. But with inventory falling to record lows, mortgage lending standards tightening and unemployment elevated, …
16th October 2020
Overview - Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic activity could surprise to the upside next year. …
15th October 2020
Overview – The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The possibility of even tighter COVID-19 restrictions and …
13th October 2020
Download the pdf for the full Outlook Overview – China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on …
12th October 2020
Overview With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way. In the countries hit worst economically, the …
8th October 2020
Overview – Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to rise by 3.5% next year, after this year’s …
Overview – The rise in cases of COVID-19 and renewed restrictions in some provinces have caused us to trim our forecast for GDP growth in the short term, but the bigger picture is that we are more optimistic than most about prospects in 2021 and 2022. The …
6th October 2020
The market movements of recent weeks are a timely reminder of the importance of the main near-term risks – coronavirus cases rising in major economies as winter approaches, and uncertainty about the forthcoming US election. Both could continue to weigh on …
2nd October 2020
Absorption is falling in all markets and vacancy is ticking higher, particularly in D.C. and San Francisco (SF). But more pain is to come, and we have significantly downgraded our forecasts for the next few years. SF has already seen a 60bps rise in …
Overview – Following a 3.7% decline this year, we expect GDP growth to be a solid 4.5% in 2021, but the risks to that forecast on both sides are, frankly, enormous. The key downside risk is that recurring waves of coronavirus infections during the winter …
1st October 2020
As the differences between a Brexit deal and a no deal are not as big as they once were, the economic costs of a no deal have diminished. The bigger risk is that relations between the UK and the EU deteriorate to such an extent that both sides start to …
Overview – The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the recovery will underwhelm too. The dire economic …
Overview – Investment activity and rents have felt the impact of the virus, with the retail sector bearing the brunt. Indeed, after falling by around 2% this year, we think that Scandinavian retail rents will end 2020 4% lower than in 2019. And with …
28th September 2020
Overview – While economic growth is expected to continue to recover over the second half of the year, albeit at a slower pace than initially post-lockdown, it won’t be the end of falls in Emerging European property values. The sharp decline in retail …
25th September 2020
Overview – While we expect the economic recovery to continue, there are downside risks in the next couple of years, particularly in the consumer sector. This will weigh on retail property, which we expect to be the worst-performing sector. The major …
21st September 2020
