Overview – Japan’s vaccine rollout has got off to a crawling start and a fourth wave of coronavirus infections is forming. Even so, we expect vaccines to allow domestic spending to rebound fully in the second half of this year. Our forecast that GDP will …
8th April 2021
Overview – All major city apartment markets will benefit from the reopening of the economy and reduction in remote work, with rental demand also supported by record low numbers of homes for sale. New York City and D.C., which both saw large falls in …
1st April 2021
Overview – There are forecast downgrades across the board this quarter, owing to the changes to our occupier demand expectations at the sector level. The markets broadly split into three pairs. New York City and San Francisco could see capital values fall …
31st March 2021
Overview – Following a year marked with sharp falls in retail rents and rising retail and office yields, the next few months for property values will continue to be dismal. We have pencilled in another drop in all-property capital values this year. With …
26th March 2021
Overview – The vaccine rollout and stimulus bill are unquestionably positive for the economy but may be a mixed blessing for real estate. Those two factors are probably most positive for the apartment sector, given that they have put more cash in the …
25th March 2021
Overview – The Swiss and Scandinavian economies and their property markets are likely to weather the pandemic better than many others in Western Europe. We expect all-property values in the region to hold steady or see small falls this year. However, even …
Overview – Euro-zone prime property will likely get off more mildly than many expected at the start of the pandemic. We forecast another small fall in all-property capital values this year, with yields holding steady and rental values extending their …
18th March 2021
Overview – Effective vaccines provide a path out of the COVID-19 economic slump, but commercial property will be slow to benefit. On the bright side, the real estate downturn has been milder than expected and we appear to be past the worst. But we think …
19th February 2021
We anticipate that US equities will outperform long-dated Treasuries over the next ten years, even though the valuation of the stock market is even higher now than it was at the beginning of the 1930s and approaching its level at the outset of the 2000s – …
16th February 2021
UK assets are well placed to shake off their underperformance since the 2016 Brexit vote by outperforming global assets over the next couple of years. All risky assets will continue to be buoyed by the combination of a rapid global economic recovery from …
15th February 2021
We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note, for example, that technology use has accelerated in …
12th February 2021
We continue to forecast that risky assets generally will fare well over the next couple of years as the global economy recovers and monetary policy remains accommodative. Despite their rapid rise since the start of November, we don’t think that equity …
29th January 2021
Overview – Industrial metals prices had a stellar 2020, with prices ending the year higher than where they started. But just as China’s strong economic recovery lifted metals prices in 2020, so will China’s slowdown in growth weigh on them in H2 2021, as …
28th January 2021
Overview – The second waves of COVID-19 currently ripping through Sub-Saharan Africa will keep economic activity depressed over the coming months and, even once vaccines belatedly reach the region, recoveries will remain sluggish. The three largest …
Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro-zone. As elsewhere in Europe, the pace of vaccine …
27th January 2021
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – China’s recovery is already in full swing, and economies elsewhere in Asia and in Emerging Europe will recover lost ground relatively quickly over the next year. But slow vaccine roll-out and austerity in some cases mean …
Overview – Rising unemployment and the withdrawal of the raft of policies that supported the housing market in 2020 means that the pandemic will finally take its toll this year. The end of the stamp duty holiday will cause transactions to slump at the …
Overview – While vaccines offer Latin America a route out of the crisis, lingering public debt issues will hold back the regional recovery and raise the risk of long-lasting economic scarring. As a result, after a sharp 6.9% drop in 2020, we expect a …
26th January 2021
Overview – The revival in oil demand and prices should continue to gather pace in 2021 as the lifting of quarantine measures enables the release of ‘pent-up’ demand associated with leisure activity. Meanwhile, a recovery in industrial activity should …
25th January 2021
Overview – In a reversal of the trend in 2020, we expect oil prices to rise this year and the prices of industrial metals and agriculturals to fall. We suspect that oil demand, particularly in developed economies, could surge in the second half of the …
22nd January 2021
Overview – The vaccine rollout is likely to make enough progress for most pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted in the spring. If so, we think euro-zone GDP will regain its pre-pandemic level by the middle of next year, with Germany getting there …
21st January 2021
Overview – China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and exports fade. Consumer Spending – Household …
Overview – A rapid roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines, combined with rising oil production and higher oil prices, will support a quick recovery this year in the Gulf economies. But other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are likely to take longer to …
20th January 2021
Overview – With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid-year – we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this …
19th January 2021
Overview – Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It implies that the government doesn’t need to …
Overview - The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate that New Zealand’s economy has already …
18th January 2021
Overview – Our forecasts for GDP growth across Emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board, but fresh outbreaks in a number of countries mean the risks to our forecasts are to the downside. Korea , Malaysia, Hong …
Overview – Prolonged containment measures mean that activity in Emerging Europe will remain depressed for longer than we had previously expected. But the region is well-placed to access and distribute vaccines, which should allow activity to recover more …
14th January 2021
Overview – Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be lifted. Our forecasts for growth of 4.6% …
Overview – The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the recovery in 2021 and 2022. But even widespread …
11th January 2021
Overview – Japan is battling a third virus wave and is a laggard in the global vaccine rollout race. Even so, we expect economic activity to return to pre-virus levels in the second half of this year as vaccines become widely available. Our forecast that …
Although the incoming economic data are likely to remain poor until around mid-2021, we forecast that “risky” assets will continue to outperform “safe” ones comfortably over the next couple of years as a whole. We also anticipate that this will be …
7th January 2021
Overview – The housing market boomed in the latter half of 2020, as record low mortgage rates, displacement due to COVID-19 and increased savings boosted home demand. But those drivers will ease in 2021 and, alongside worsening affordability and record …
23rd December 2020
The changes to our forecasts this quarter reflect two partially offsetting factors – downgrades to occupier demand, and upgrades to the yield outlook. We expect NYC and San Francisco to be the worst affected markets in the next three years, seeing average …
18th December 2020
Overview – While vaccine developments have improved the economic outlook for the latter half of next year, the near-term weakness in economic activity means that property values will remain under pressure over the coming quarters. But even once occupier …
Overview – The positive news on the vaccine has improved the economic outlook and should allow output in the Swiss and Scandinavian economies to recover to their pre-virus levels in late 2021. This will support the rental recovery. However, structural …
17th December 2020
Overview – While the news of vaccines provides a fillip to our economic outlook, it does not have a major bearing on our occupier market forecasts. After all, we expect that structural change, rather than cyclical growth, will be the major driver of …
11th December 2020
Overview – Although the near-term economic outlook remains weak, vaccine developments pave the way for a rebound in mid-2021. However, we think that the rental recovery in property markets will be more gradual. This reflects that structural headwinds …
10th December 2020
After having been hit particularly hard during the COVID-19 crisis, UK assets are well placed to perform much better now that COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook. Indeed, the combination of a decent economic recovery and continued …
24th November 2020
Overview – The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property yields will edge higher and that all-property …
20th November 2020
We continue to think that risky assets will gain more ground and that the US dollar will weaken against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy. In our view, the outcome of the recent US elections and the news …
13th November 2020
Overview – Energy demand and prices have continued to recover from their virus-induced lows, but they remain depressed. However, we expect the revival in energy demand to pick up pace in 2021 as developed economies phase out virus-containment measures and …
28th October 2020
Overview – The post-lockdown recovery in house price growth and housing market activity has exceeded expectations. But the economy will act as a drag on the housing market in the coming months, while pent-up demand will soon be expended and the stamp duty …
27th October 2020
Overview – Industrial metals prices have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the stimulus-fuelled recovery in China’s economy. But given how far prices have risen already, and that we think demand outside of China will remain lacklustre, an …
26th October 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin America lagging. …
23rd October 2020
Overview – Commodity prices will continue to benefit from the stimulus-fuelled recovery in China’s economy over the next year. At the same time, a gradual revival in growth in advanced economies should give a lift to the price of oil, which has …
22nd October 2020
Overview – Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been delayed, low oil prices will weigh on growth …
Overview – Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more strongly from the crisis than many other …
Global Overview – The world economy has clawed back about 60% of the output lost in the first half of the year, but recoveries in most parts of the world have already slowed. Prospects now vary according to success in controlling the virus and the policy …
