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On the road to recovery

The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the recovery in 2021 and 2022. But even widespread vaccination won’t restore the economy to full health given the extreme weakness of the banking sector and tepid fiscal support. Output is likely to remain below its pre-virus trend for many years.

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