Emerging Europe: Not out of the woods yet

While vaccine developments have improved the economic outlook for the latter half of next year, the near-term weakness in economic activity means that property values will remain under pressure over the coming quarters. But even once occupier demand improves, we think that the rental recovery in offices and retail will be muted. For offices, large supply pipelines and a shift to more remote working in Warsaw and Prague will keep a lid on rental growth. And while the impact of growing e-commerce on retail rents will be limited in most Emerging European markets, after sharp falls this year, we think that the pace of rental growth will be slow by past standards. Similarly, while we expect industrial rents to grow in 2021, given the large supply pipeline, the rental outlook over the next five years is subdued. Bringing all this together, following a 7% fall in 2020, we think that CEE all-property capital values will barely grow over the next five years.