Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be lifted. Our forecasts for growth of 4.6% this year and 5.8% next year imply GDP will surpass its pre-pandemic peak in the fourth quarter of 2021 and will be closing in on its pre-pandemic trend by the end of 2022.
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