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Recovery to continue, but a bull run is unlikely

Commodity prices will continue to benefit from the stimulus-fuelled recovery in China’s economy over the next year. At the same time, a gradual revival in growth in advanced economies should give a lift to the price of oil, which has underperformed for much of this year. And we expect the price of gold to remain elevated as US real yields edge a little lower. By contrast, we think the recent price rally in agriculturals may lose steam in 2021 if, as seems likely, supply improves.

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