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2021 to be a year of two halves

Industrial metals prices had a stellar 2020, with prices ending the year higher than where they started. But just as China’s strong economic recovery lifted metals prices in 2020, so will China’s slowdown in growth weigh on them in H2 2021, as credit growth eases back and fiscal stimulus is gradually withdrawn. At the same time, a further decline in US real yields should prop up the gold price in 2021, even as risky assets such as equities do well.

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