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President Trump’s tariff threats this month put Latin America in the firing line, in stark contrast to Liberation Day when the region was largely unaffected. Taken together with headwinds from tight policy and lower commodity prices, growth is likely to …
29th July 2025
Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared just a few months ago, but the economy is still likely to struggle this year. While the rest of the region is relatively insulated from the trade war, lower commodity prices …
17th June 2025
We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the backdrop of lower commodity prices, tight policy and, in Mexico’s case in particular, uncertainty around US trade policy. Despite the recent dovish shift by many of the …
27th May 2025
Latin America generally got off lightly on ‘liberation day’, but the indirect effects on confidence and, more importantly, demand from China could be larger. Meanwhile, the sell-off in the region’s currencies amid the recent turmoil in financial markets …
15th April 2025
The protectionist shift in the US will weigh heavily on Mexico’s economy, which at best might just eke out positive growth this year. The rest of the region is less exposed to tariffs, but tight policy and worsening terms of trade will weigh on growth, …
26th March 2025
Some major Latin American economies are among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced recently by US President Trump. But neither Brazil nor Argentina are heavily …
17th February 2025
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with Mexico most vulnerable to his tariff threats while Central American economies could be heavily impacted by his migration plans. Elsewhere in the region, the main impact will …
27th January 2025
The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening terms of trade and US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks have intensified, in …
17th December 2024
Currencies across Latin American have held up well in the wake of the US election, but we think that they will come under pressure as the dollar strengthens on the back of Trump’s policy proposals. The Mexican peso looks particularly vulnerable to sharp …
25th November 2024
Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in US Treasury yields and a Trump victory in next week’s US election would probably result in a further sell-off. Policymakers’ reaction would depend on how sharp the currency …
30th October 2024
Growth across Latin America is likely to be weaker than most expect in the next couple of years amid tight policy and worsening terms of trade. Even so, inflation is likely to stay above central banks’ targets in many countries. This means that monetary …
25th September 2024
Most Latin American economies appear to have headed into Q3 with little momentum and regional growth is likely to remain sub-2% this year and next. With inflation set to remain above target for a while yet, easing cycles in many countries will be …
28th August 2024
Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in the next few quarters. At a country level, we expect the Andean economies to outperform Brazil and Mexico in the next couple of years. With inflation set to rise further in …
24th July 2024
After a strong start of the year, regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters. Brazil and Mexico’s economies are likely to underperform the Andes and disappoint consensus expectations in the next …
25th June 2024
While GDP growth in the Andean economies will be stronger this year than last, the opposite is likely to be the case in Brazil and Mexico. Core services inflation, which central banks are paying close attention to, is showing signs of easing. But with …
22nd May 2024
Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters. But growth over the year as a whole will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process is entering a slower phase and the delay in rate cuts …
24th April 2024
Our latest Latin America Chart Pack is embedded below. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will disappoint consensus expectations. The disinflation process …
13th March 2024
The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a trend we expect to continue this year. But we think the Andean economies are on track to stage a recovery. The big falls in inflation in the region are behind us …
22nd February 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we expect to continue this year. In contrast, the Andean economies are on the recovery path and growth will accelerate this year. In Chile and Peru, inflation is now …
The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations. In contrast, the Andean economies are set for a …
20th December 2023
Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover. Rapid wage growth will keep inflation above target for some …
21st November 2023
25th October 2023
Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover. Central banks across the region will continue to lower …
28th September 2023
Brazil's and Mexico's economies are likely to outperform others in the region in 2023, but this is likely to go into reverse in 2024. And our growth forecasts for most countries in the region are below the consensus. Inflation in most parts of Latin …
23rd August 2023
The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth in 2024 to come in weaker than most expect. Inflation has come down a long way and price pressures should continue to ease over the coming months, paving the way for …
24th July 2023
It’s been a good month for Latin American currencies, particularly the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso, which should help the disinflation process across the region. This is one reason behind the recent dovish shift by the region’s central banks. …
27th June 2023
The latest activity figures suggest that most Latin American economies held up better than we’d thought in the first few months of 2023. Mexico and Colombia made surprisingly strong starts to the year while Chile ’s economy appeared to be gathering some …
23rd May 2023
The raft of inflation data over the past couple of weeks will have provided some relief for Latin American central banks, with headline rates in most countries now on a clear downward trajectory. In Mexico this means that a final rate hike in May now …
26th April 2023
Strains in the global banking sector have flared up at a time when Latin America was in the midst of a period of economic weakness. Regional GDP fell in the final quarter of last year and surveys for early 2023 have been soft. Latin America’s banks have …
22nd March 2023
The latest data suggest that current account deficits in the region’s major economies narrowed towards the end of last year, which is particularly good news for Colombia and Chile. Both were running alarmingly large shortfalls last year which helps to …
22nd February 2023
The outlook for Latin America has turned more positive at the start of the year as China has shifted away from its zero-Covid policy and commodity prices have rallied. But this comes against a backdrop in which regional growth is showing clearer signs …
30th January 2023
Peru ’s newly-inaugurated President Boluarte’s call to bring forward the next general election to 2024 has failed to pacify protesters who took to the streets following the impeachment of President Castillo last week. The unrest is already causing …
14th December 2022
Data released over the past month or so suggest that most economies across the region fared well in Q3. GDP growth in Mexico and Colombia came in well above expectations and hard activity data from Brazil point to another solid expansion last quarter too. …
17th November 2022
Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday to decide who’ll become the country’s next president in a heated run-off election between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his left-wing rival Lula. Lula is still the front runner, but the race is looking much tighter …
25th October 2022
Latin American currencies have come under pressure this month which will put further upward pressure on inflation, but the bigger picture is that headline rates are at, or close to, a peak across the region. Indeed, headline rates in Brazil and Peru are …
27th September 2022
The region faces a busy political calendar. Chileans head to the polls on Sunday to vote on a new constitution which would usher in sweeping changes to the country’s current economic model. While the latest polls suggest that the charter will be …
30th August 2022
Latin American economies held up well in early part of this year, helped by the surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine. But there are signs that activity is now weakening. Timely monthly activity indices fell in m/m terms in five of …
27th July 2022
High inflation seems to be causing growing unrest in the region, which threatens to be economically disruptive and raise fiscal concerns. Recent protests in Ecuador have hit its oil sector hard, while truck drivers in Peru are about to embark on a strike. …
28th June 2022
The first round of Colombia’s presidential election has set up a close race between left-wing Gustavo Petro and populist Rodolfo Hernández in the second round vote on 19 th June. The vote was a major repudiation of the pro-business governments that have …
30th May 2022
Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to unrest in Peru, and there is growing political pressure to …
27th April 2022
High commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine have driven a rally in Latin American currencies and equities this month, and are causing exports to surge. Weekly trade figures from Brazil and Chile show that exports were up by 25-40% y/y in early …
31st March 2022
The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh headwind to the region. While the recent surge in global …
24th February 2022
Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario Marcel , the current Central Bank Governor, as the next …
25th January 2022
Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at this stage. The situation could get worse if the …
22nd December 2021
Political developments in Latin America have generally turned in investors’ favour this month. Right-wing José Antonio Kast beat his left-wing rival, Gabriel Boric, in the first round of Chile’s presidential election which buoyed local markets. Elsewhere, …
24th November 2021
The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance, Ecuadorian President Lasso recently U-turned on a plan to …
26th October 2021
Falling new virus cases and the lifting of restrictions have boosted economies across the region in Q3, but the deteriorating external backdrop will put a lid on growth from here. Even with an orderly resolution to the Evergrande saga , a slowdown in …
28th September 2021
Inflation is at, or close to, multi-year highs across Latin America which has prompted a slew of interest rate hikes across the region. We think that central banks in Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Peru will continue their tightening cycles over the coming …
19th August 2021
While the regional economic recovery stuttered in Q2, it appears to be gathering pace in Q3. New COVID-19 cases have dropped back, particularly in Chile and Uruguay suggesting that their rapid vaccination programmes are proving effective. Restrictions …
27th July 2021
