Region slowing

Data released over the past month or so suggest that most economies across the region fared well in Q3. GDP growth in Mexico and Colombia came in well above expectations and hard activity data from Brazil point to another solid expansion last quarter too. That said, there were signs that economies were heading into Q4 with weak momentum. Industrial output in Mexico and Brazil contracted in September while the expenditure breakdown of Colombia’s GDP showed that consumer spending is coming off the boil amid high inflation and tight monetary policy. We expect growth across the region to slow over the coming quarters and our 2023 growth forecasts for most economies lie below the consensus.