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Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be a relative …
30th June 2025
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s economy, and looser …
27th March 2025
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less than …
19th December 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn of the year …
26th September 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling the benefits …
27th June 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US will continue to …
28th March 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to outperform …
13th December 2023
Note: We discussed the key takeaways from our Q4 Global Economic and Markets Outlooks in a Drop-In on Wednesday, 11 th October. To view the recording Click here . Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We think that the now popular assumption that …
3rd October 2023
Global Overview – Most advanced economies have so far dodged the recessions that we, and many others, had expected to start in the first half of this year. The relative resilience of activity can be pinned on several supply- and demand-side props to …
27th June 2023
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are relatively …
30th March 2023
Click here to read the full report. Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across …
19th December 2022
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom has spread …
25th October 2022
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The outlook for the world economy has darkened again and we have reduced our forecasts for all major economies, leaving them further below the consensus of economists. We now anticipate recessions in the euro-zone …
21st July 2022
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We have revised our forecast for world growth this year to further below the consensus to reflect the growing ill effects of high inflation. While inflation should ease as the year goes on, the drag on real incomes …
27th April 2022
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – Global growth will be slower this year than last and we expect outturns in major economies including the US and China to be below consensus forecasts. The US economy will be hindered by persistent labour shortages …
25th January 2022
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The global recovery will slow in the coming quarters as the initial post-lockdown rebound fades and policy support is reduced. At the same time, supply shortages are likely to persist well into next year, which …
26th October 2021
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The initial post-pandemic resurgence is nearing its zenith, but strong policy support and limited private sector net debt should allow most economies to grow at a healthy pace over the next two years. The US and …
28th July 2021
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – A rise in virus cases and some setbacks to vaccination programmes have pushed back the recoveries in some countries somewhat, but we still expect strong global growth of over 6% this year. The US will continue to …
23rd April 2021
Global Overview – The world economy has clawed back about 60% of the output lost in the first half of the year, but recoveries in most parts of the world have already slowed. Prospects now vary according to success in controlling the virus and the policy …
22nd October 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The initial rapid pick-up in economic activity has offered encouragement after an almost unprecedented recession. But households and firms will remain in cautious mode, preventing a full V-shaped recovery. And …
27th July 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The disruption relating to the coronavirus is set to cause the steepest fall in global GDP since the Second World War. We are forecasting a 5½% contraction this year, far bigger than the 0.5% fall seen during the …
23rd April 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We think that global growth is at or near a trough, with leading indicators picking up around the world and some EMs already experiencing a revival. But the global recovery will be gradual and uneven. The US should …
27th January 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – Growth has not yet reached a bottom and we expect weakness in advanced economies to drive a further slowdown around the turn of the year. Widespread monetary policy loosening is already underway and we think that …
17th October 2019
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We see world GDP growth slowing further as the US succumbs to the weakness which is already evident elsewhere. The downturn in global manufacturing is spreading to the services sector and labour markets are also …
19th July 2019
