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Recession threat broadens

The outlook for the world economy has darkened again and we have reduced our forecasts for all major economies, leaving them further below the consensus of economists. We now anticipate recessions in the euro-zone and the UK and expect the US, Canada and Australia to avoid economic contraction only narrowly. If a technical “global recession” is avoided, this will be largely thanks to a moderate post-COVID rebound in China and relative economic strength among the major commodities producers. Inflation is likely to prove more persistent than in the recent past, so the widespread and aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle has further to run. But this will add to headwinds to growth and ultimately force several central banks to reverse course in 2024 or even before. We’ll be discussing the key takeaways from this report in a Drop-In on Wednesday, 27th July. Sign up now to join the discussion. Register here. Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recession Threat Broadens Wednesday, July 27, 2022 at 03:00 PM British Summer Time.

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