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Nearing a trough

We think that global growth is at or near a trough, with leading indicators picking up around the world and some EMs already experiencing a revival. But the global recovery will be gradual and uneven. The US should outperform market expectations as the effects of past monetary policy loosening continue to feed through to the economy and India will get a welcome boost from policy stimulus too. However, we think that the euro-zone will continue to disappoint and growth in China looks set to slow further despite the successful conclusion of the Phase One trade deal.

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