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Recovery to wane as economies diverge

The initial rapid pick-up in economic activity has offered encouragement after an almost unprecedented recession. But households and firms will remain in cautious mode, preventing a full V-shaped recovery. And while policy is set to remain supportive, the recent huge impetus must ultimately be wound down with adverse effects. China, Korea and Taiwan are among the furthest along the road to recovery and we expect them to stay in the lead, while economies in southern Europe, Latin America and Africa lag behind. In all, it will probably be a few years before the global economy returns to its pre-virus path.

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