On course for a soft landing

In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US will continue to outperform its advanced economy peers. As the drag from past monetary tightening fades, growth will pick up towards trend rates in late 2024 and into 2025, although tight fiscal policy will restrain the pace of recovery in the euro-zone. China’s growth phase will shift in the opposite direction, as its ongoing cyclical upturn gives way to structural headwinds. Inflation will fall further almost everywhere, though progress will be slower in many EMs. In DMs, with inflation on course to return close to targets by the second half of 2024, major central banks will start cutting rates mid-year and end up cutting more than markets now anticipate.