Overview – While the more uncertain global backdrop due to the new US tariffs regime means we have become more confident in our below-consensus UK GDP forecast, the prospect of falling mortgage rates suggests UK housing demand is well insulated from US …
1st May 2025
Our base case is that the turmoil across financial markets in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement will continue to stabilise. As such, we assume that most asset prices and the dollar will recover some ground, with equities faring …
17th April 2025
Overview – Our working assumption is that the 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will be made permanent, with tariffs remaining at 10% for most countries apart from China. Providing Congress soon recycles the tariff revenue into …
16th April 2025
The apartment market is on track to recover over our five-year forecast, with new supply falling back sharply, while demand remains solid. However, the size and speed of recovery will differ widely by region. The largest vacancy rate declines – around …
7th April 2025
Overview – We’ve become more concerned about the outlook for the economy due to the drags from higher businesses taxes and the more uncertain global backdrop being bigger than we thought and the boost from government spending being smaller. Our forecasts …
31st March 2025
Overview – Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower inflation and easing monetary policy. But …
28th March 2025
Overview – We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts across most of the region for this year and think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies will pick up pace going into 2026, despite the headwind from US tariffs. An end to the war in Ukraine …
27th March 2025
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s economy, and looser …
Following the series of US tariff announcements in early April, we have revised our forecasts. You can find the updated forecasts here . Overview – We have raised our assumption for the average US tariff rate that Canadian exporters will face, to a level …
Overview – Following upward revisions to our forecasts for policy rates and bond yields, we have raised our forecasts for prime property yields in Europe and now expect increases of around 20-25bps by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, despite a slightly …
Overview – GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will pick up over the next couple of years supported by rising oil and LNG output from the Gulf. However, lower oil prices will result in tighter fiscal policy in parts of the Gulf, particularly …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight policy will all drag …
26th March 2025
Overview – Increased US tariffs will exacerbate a broader slowdown in exports. China’s economy will also face continued drags from the property downturn and wider deflationary dynamics. A sizeable fiscal loosening will provide a partial offset but won’t …
The divergence between the struggling western metros and the better-performing southern metros remains the key story in office markets. That expectation is underpinned by both higher office utilization rates in southern metros and by their better …
25th March 2025
Overview – We expect economic growth across the region to remain subdued, with most economies set to record below-trend and below-consensus growth this year. While lower interest rates will provide some support to growth, this boost is likely to be offset …
Overview – Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated public demand, we believe the RBA will only …
Overview – While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial metals are well below consensus. Gold is a …
24th March 2025
Overview – The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany won’t loosen policy very much, and the …
21st March 2025
Overview – Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our forecasts could easily tip the economy into …
20th March 2025
While trade tensions create downside risks, we expect GDP growth to be around trend this year. And following another strong showing in this year’s spring wage negotiations, wage growth will remain high enough to keep inflation above the Bank of Japan’s 2% …
17th March 2025
Overview – Our new forecasts have been compiled in the most uncertain geoeconomic environment for a long time. But our firmly below-consensus expectations for US CRE are led by our view that nearly three years since the market peak, appraisals still do …
13th March 2025
Overview – India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy. We’re expecting a further 75bps of …
11th March 2025
This third edition of our annual Climate Economics Outlook updates our long-term emissions forecasting framework to incorporate our latest macroeconomic and energy views. Note: You can create your own emissions scenarios with our interactive Emissions …
6th March 2025
President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still expect AI to drive a revival in productivity growth …
25th February 2025
Overview – The economic outlook has worsened over the past couple of months, which supports our call that the recovery in commercial property will be modest by past standards. Admittedly, interest rates are set to fall back. But with the spread over gilts …
19th February 2025
Overview – Our forecast that mortgage rates will fall further than widely expected suggests that a decent recovery in transactions will allow house prices to rise by around 3.5% this year and by 4.5% next year, which would be a bit more than the …
4th February 2025
Overview – The potentially inflationary policy mix of the incoming Trump administration will limit the decline in mortgage rates this year, squashing hopes for a major recovery in home sales. We expect transactions to remain depressed, reaching just 4.3m …
8th January 2025
Our apartment metro forecasts continue to show significant variation between metros, even within regions. For example, while we expect continued strong demand growth in the South – especially in Austin, Miami and Dallas – we also expect high volumes of …
23rd December 2024
We expect there will continue to be major divergence between the winning and losing metros. We think the major markets and tech-centric western markets will continue to fare poorly thanks to low office attendance rates and relatively weak office job …
19th December 2024
Overview – We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the middle of next year, we would expect GDP …
Tab le of Key Forecasts Overview – Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be limited. Currencies will …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less than …
Overview – The near-term economic outlook has brightened, with lower interest rates feeding through and consumption benefitting from the recent strong pace of real income growth. That should help to drive quarterly GDP growth above 2% annualised in the …
18th December 2024
We expect the US dollar to appreciate a bit further in 2025 as the US economy and stock market continue to outperform peers and president-elect Donald Trump brings in extensive tariffs next year. As widely anticipated, the Republican sweep in the November …
17th December 2024
Overview – Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region will disappoint consensus expectations for …
Overview – Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain countries, but is unlikely to have a …
We think US equities will fare better in 2025 than the other major asset classes we monitor, as the AI bubble inflates further. But we expect equities elsewhere generally to lag those in the US and provide worse returns than “safe” sovereign bonds. We …
Overview – China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more challenging external environment and a further …
Overview – We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening will continue to weigh on investment and …
16th December 2024
Overview – We expect another year of below-trend and below-consensus GDP growth in most of Asia in 2025, as tight fiscal policy and weak exports weigh on output. In China, a slowdown in construction will act as a further drag. Inflation is back to (or …
13th December 2024
Overview – Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of developments in the Middle East that could push …
Overview – The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total returns expectations to 5.5-6.0% p.a. over the …
12th December 2024
To see how our latest European property forecasts stack up against the other regions we cover and against other asset classes, please see our new Global Returns Dashboard here . Overview – The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will …
Overview – Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks will remain in the spotlight as governments …
Overview – Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery without stoking inflation risks, the same …
Overview – GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect that growth in Egypt and Morocco will …
11th December 2024
This publication has been updated to reflect changes to our forecasts after the October GDP release on 13th December 2024. Overview – Despite the deterioration in the outlook for the UK's key trading partners, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will …
10th December 2024
Overview – After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major benchmarks. Headline CPI inflation is likely …
Overview – We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations result in another sizeable pay hike. …
3rd December 2024
Overview – The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over property yields currently narrow, that implies …
22nd November 2024
