Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls in interest rates than most expect propel GDP growth from 0.9% this year to 1.4% in 2025 and to 1.6% 2026. We think that the UK will go from growing at the same pace as the euro-zone to overtaking it. And 2025 could be one of those rare occasions when growth in the UK is accelerating while it is slowing in the US.
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