Will the V shaped recovery last?

The housing market recovery has exceeded all expectations and we have substantially upgraded our 2020 house price forecast. But as pent up demand runs out, a weak economy, tight credit conditions and the end of the stamp duty cut will hold back further growth. We now expect prices to stagnate in 2021.
Hansen Lu Property Economist
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UK Housing Market Update

House price boom has further to run

The end of the stamp duty holiday may do little to dampen demand and homes for sale are in short supply. The upshot is that house price growth will remain strong into next year, so we have revised up our forecast for house price growth in 2022 from 3% to 5%.

16 September 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q2 21)

The further surge in mortgage lending to a fresh post-financial-crisis high and booming house prices begs the question whether there is over-exuberance in the housing market. But as the surge has been driven by a jump in home moving as opposed to riskier lending there isn’t yet cause for concern.

14 September 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.)

While demand continued to soften in August limited stock on the market points to house price inflation remaining high in the near term. And despite the end of the stamp duty holiday, surveyors expect sales to hold steady at an elevated level.

9 September 2021

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UK Commercial Property Data Response

Credit Conditions Survey (Q3)

Banks maintain property lending caution Mortgage availability saw a modest improvement Q3, but not enough to reverse the large fall seen in Q2. Meanwhile, credit availability to commercial property fell sharply during the quarter, and lenders expect to remain cautious in Q4. According to the Bank of England’s credit conditions survey, a balance of 10% of lenders reported a rise…

15 October 2020

UK Housing Market Data Response

Credit Conditions Survey (Q3)

Mortgage availability saw a modest improvement Q3, but not enough to reverse the large fall seen in Q2. Meanwhile, credit availability to commercial property fell sharply during the quarter, and lenders expect to remain cautious in Q4.

15 October 2020

UK Housing Market Update

Employment revisions highlight rental market risks

The big downward revision to employment in the labour market statistics reveals that renters have seen a larger hit to employment than homeowners. This supports our view that house prices will be resilient next year, while private rents will probably fall.

14 October 2020
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