RBNZ will deliver another hawkish hold

Although economic activity has held up reasonably well thus far, we still think it will see another leg down. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBNZ won’t lift rates any higher. That said, the Bank will probably wait to see more compelling evidence that inflation is on its way back to its 1-3% target before it loosens policy. Therefore, we now expect rate cuts only in Q3 2024, as opposed to Q2 2024 previously.