We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for the RBA to keep policy in restrictive territory for a prolonged period. Accordingly, we expect the Bank to cut rates to 2.85% this cycle, below the terminal rate of 3.10% predicted by the analyst consensus.
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