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Riksbank preparing for life after physical cash

While the Riksbank’s plans for an official digital currency are still in the early stages, we think it is more likely than not that it will launch the e-krona by the mid-2020s. Moreover, we suspect that it will opt for a design which has the potential to supercharge its ability to boost the economy in future downturns.
David Oxley Senior Europe Economist
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Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Don’t bet against a 50bp Norges Bank hike in August

The Norges Bank intends to follow this week’s 50bp interest rate hike with a 25bp rate rise in August, but the combination of strong global inflation pressures, an incredibly tight labour market in Norway, and weak krone, could yet tip the balance towards another 50bp hike. It will be the Riksbank’s turn in the limelight next Thursday, and we expect it to join the Norges Bank, the SNB, and a host of other advanced central banks in the “50bp club”. Meanwhile, following the weakness of the euro-zone PMIs in June, the release of similar business surveys from Switzerland and the Nordics are also likely to make for worrying reading.

24 June 2022

Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch

Riksbank to join the “50bp crowd” next week

Having begun its tightening cycle in April, we expect the Riksbank to join the trend by raising its policy interest rate by 50bps, to 0.75%, next week.

23 June 2022

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Norges Bank joins the “50bp club”

This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its key policy rate by 50bps, to 1.25%, was in line with our non-consensus forecast. Also, as we predicted, the Bank all but confirmed that it will break with tradition and raise rates at the “interim” meeting in August, to 1.50%.

23 June 2022

More from David Oxley

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland GDP (Q1 2021) & PMIs (May)

Data released this morning confirmed that the Swiss economy started 2021 on the back foot following a tightening in virus-related restrictions. However, activity will have gathered pace in Q2.

1 June 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Swiss seven-year itch; lots to ponder at the Riksbank

The breakdown of the Swiss/EU Treaty talks has taken the headlines this week, but the Swiss economy appears to be galloping ahead in any case. While the belated release of Q1 GDP data next week is likely to show that output contracted as virus restrictions bit, business surveys suggest that the economy got into its stride in Q2 and the upside risks to our 2021 forecasts are building. Meanwhile, the releases of the PMIs from May next week are likely to show that industrial sectors remained in rude health.

28 May 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Switzerland waves Auf Wiederloge to a new EU Treaty

While the breakdown in Treaty talks between Switzerland and the EU makes the outlook for Swiss exporters more uncertain, we doubt that the lasting economic impact will be very big.

27 May 2021
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