Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis

Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the next few years. Elsewhere, the strike on a US base in Jordan highlights the risks that Jordan’s economy faces the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading – in particular through the tourism sector which makes up 10% of GDP. And in Tunisia, the news that the central bank will start to finance the government’s budget deficit risks fuelling inflation, leading to a more disorderly fall in the currency and hastening a sovereign default.