The announcement by Saudi Arabia that it will roll over its voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut through August has led us to downwardly revise our GDP growth forecast for this year. The UAE has been much more reluctant to cut output. And the push toward renewables in the new national energy strategy reaffirms their desire to get ahead of peak oil demand. Measures from the UAE’s central bank this week to cap mortgage repayments may help to prevent a rise in NPLs. But the big debt risks lie in the GREs. Finally, Q1 GDP data confirmed Morocco’s economy started off the year on a strong footing as the effects of the drought faded, supporting our view that the recovery will take hold this year.
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