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We now expect higher and earlier peaks in bond yields

We now think that the yields of 10-year developed market government bonds will peak earlier and, in some cases, at higher levels than we previously expected. That reflects a view that tightening cycles in many DMs will be more front-loaded and aggressive than we previously thought. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now
Franziska Palmas Markets Economist
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Global Markets Update

Challenges ahead for Brazil’s stock market

Brazil’s stock market has fared better than most this year, but we forecast it to fall ~15% over the rest of 2022. And while we expect it to rebound over the following couple of years, we think falling commodity prices and mounting fiscal risks will limit the scale of its rally.

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What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets

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Capital Daily

ECB emergency meeting not enough to contain spreads durably

Euro-zone “peripheral” spreads have narrowed significantly on the back of today’s emergency ECB meeting, but we think that they will resume their rise before long. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

15 June 2022

Global Markets Update

New, higher forecasts for EZ bond yields and spreads

We are raising our forecasts for euro-zone 10-year government bond yields and “peripheral” spreads to reflect the ECB’s further hawkish shift as well as its apparent unwillingness to commit to a strong backstop for peripheral bond markets.  

10 June 2022

Capital Daily

Hawkish ECB much more concerning for BTPs than Bunds

While the yields of 10-year government bonds have risen across the euro-zone after the ECB sounded particularly hawkish at its meeting today, we suspect that further upward pressure on “core” yields will be limited. In contrast, the lack of details on plans to prevent fragmentation further raises the risk of a disorderly sell-off in “peripheral” bonds.

9 June 2022
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