While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal will be reached later this year and that the economy will not enter a recession. Meanwhile, despite the French Finance Minister’s belief that the spread between French and German bond yields will shrink later this year, we think it will increase significantly due to the lack of political will to fix the country’s stark fiscal problems.
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