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Europe Chart Pack (June 2024)

The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment falling to a fresh record low and wage growth picking up a little in the first quarter. And with services inflation having been a bit stronger than expected, we think the ECB will not cut rates at the next meeting in July and will instead wait until the September meeting. Elsewhere, we also think that the SNB and Riksbank will pause their loosening cycle at their next meetings later this month, but we expect the Riksbank to return to cutting rate later this year. Norges Bank will probably only follow suit with rate cuts in December.

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