While the human losses from the earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria this week are first and foremost in everyone’s minds, we think the overall economic impact on Turkey’s economy will be more limited than most expect. Elsewhere, Russian budget data this week revealed a surge in government spending and, with the central bank becoming more concerned about pro-inflationary risks, we now expect the next move in interest rates to be a hike. Finally, the jump in inflation in Central Europe in January doesn’t change our view that it will fall sharply this year.
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