Oil market remains unfazed by geopolitics for now
Despite President Trump’s threat to enforce 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, which could effectively choke off up to 5% of global oil supply, oil prices are roughly where they were at the start of July. This is mainly because market participants appear to be focused on weak fundamentals following the latest OPEC+ output hike. With OPEC+ now committed to fully unwinding the first layer of voluntary output cuts, attention turns to the group’s next move. If our base case that OPEC+ will start to raise output again in Q2 2026 proves correct, we think Brent crude will fall to $50pb by end-26.
Meanwhile, last-minute exemptions to US tariffs on copper imports led to a plunge in COMEX prices. Now that tariffs are in place, we expect prices globally to fall back as market distortions ease and demand in China weakens.
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