The Melbourne Institute’s timely inflation gauge suggests that trimmed inflation is likely to overshoot the RBA’s expectations for Q3. Although the Board left rates on hold this week, we therefore still expect it to deliver another 25bp hike in November. That said, we doubt the Bank will tighten policy any further beyond that. Newly released PMI data point to a renewed slowdown in underlying price pressures in the months ahead. And although the Aussie dollar is coming under increasing downward pressure, we think there will be little pass-through from a weaker currency to goods inflation.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services